When Does Nayib Bukele Term End?

President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador is one of the most significant and divisive political figures in Latin America. He is known for leading differently than previous leaders, controversial legal rulings, and a strong arm approach on crime. His unique leadership and culture have completely transformed the political and social landscape in El Salvador. Events involving the president's re-election in 2024 gained global attention. As a result many are asking, when will his current term end, and what comes after?

Bukele’s Second Presidential Term Officially Runs From 2024 to 2029 According to Government Schedule

Nayib Bukele commenced his second presidential term on June 1, 2024, after winning the general election on February 4, 2024, by a landslide. Under El Salvador’s presidential system, each term is five years long, meaning Bukele’s current mandate will end on May 31, 2029. In order for re-election to be possible, the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court issued a decision in 2021 that essentially overruled the former interpretation of the constitution that clarified that presidents are not allowed to serve consecutive terms. This happened when lawmakers loyal to Bukele replaced the justices to allow for re-election under a new interpretation of the law.

Court Ruling That Enabled Re-election Altered the Country’s Constitutional Tradition

Prior to 2021, the Constitution of El Salvador prohibited sitting presidents from seeking immediate re-election. A new Constitutional Chamber, newly appointed by current president Bukele, reinterpreted this rule a monumental breakdown in the legal and political landscape of the country. Critics argued that by allowing presidents to seek immediate re-election, it undermined the democratic check and balance. In defense, Bukele and his support argued that if the communities felt free to re-elect a president, then that should be respected. Despite the uproar, Bukele’s win in 2024 had a resounding effect. He garnered more than 83% of the votes and his party Nuevas Ideas, obtained 58 of the 60 seats in the Legislative Assembly. This supermajority is giving him unprecedented levels of control over policy and governance heading into his second term.

Dramatic Decrease in Crime Rates Helped Secure Massive Public Support for Second Term

Bukele’s widely popular “State of Exception,” first declared in March 2022, criminalizing and detaining many suspected gang members and criminals (over 83,000), is commonly agreed to be responsible for the drop in crime. Human rights group have voiced concern over possible rights violations, but large swathes of the Salvadoran population have praised these policies and feel safer. In 2015, El Salvador had one of the highest homicide rates in the world at 103 per 100k residents. Government statistics show a drop to below 2 per 100k, which means El Salvador now has one of the lowest crime rates in Latin America. This was his platform to be re-elected, and his popularity continues into his present term.

Economic Challenges Could Impact the Administration’s Momentum Over the Next Five Years

While Bukele’s focus on security has found approval, economy is still an area of serious concern. As of 2023, the Central Reserve Bank has estimated that El Salvador’s public debt exceeded $25 billion and surpassed 77% of the country’s GDP. While job growth is currently stagnant, Salvadoran inflation has also risen in recent years.While the president has promoted Bitcoin as legal tender and taken steps to attract foreign investment in infrastructure and tourism, analysts are doubtful about whether any long-term, meaningful economic activity will result. As the administration considers investing in public programs with existing debt, the question remains, how will the administration manage maintaining fiscal sustainability and ensuring its legacy.

Political Analysts Are Closely Watching for Signs of Another Potential Run After 2029

Even though Bukele's current term ends in 2029, speculation is already swirling about the possibility of him attempting to seek another term. As long as he is able to make legal adjustments to his presidency, or the current legal adjustment is accepted, he will be able to try for additional term. Because Bukele controls the legislative and judicial branches of government, this is possible but not likely. As we move to the future, the country's democratic institutions, the opinions of the public, and the performance of the economy will affect whether Bukele seeks to continue his presidency past 2029. While, observers from both outside the country and inside it, will continue to monitor the direction of Bukele's policies and the ramifications of his unprecedented use of presidential power.