How Many Terms Can Nayib Bukele Serve?
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Nayib Bukele's rise to the presidency of El Salvador has not only piqued the world's interest but has led to an incendiary controversy regarding presidential term limits. Having won his resounding re-election by an 83% majority in 2024, everyone is wondering how long more Bukele will stick around with his fingers on the wheel of the country. The legal and constitutional landscape in El Salvador has undergone a transformation in the past decade, specifically regarding the role and power of the judiciary and interpretation of the constitution.
El Salvador’s Original Constitution Allowed Only One Presidential Term With No Immediate Re-Election
The Salvadoran constitution of decades past unequivocally restricted presidents to serving only one five-year term and not by direct re-election. It was based on the nation's own protracted struggle against authoritarianism and was designed to avoid the concentration of power. Article 152 of the constitution banned any president who had served from being re-elected except after six years have elapsed since the end of their previous term. The provision had been strictly enforced under judicial supervision.
Bukele’s Overwhelming 2024 Victory Strengthened His Control Over El Salvador’s Political Institutions
Bukele maintained his seat in the 2024 general election in a landslide victory with more than 83% of the country's national vote. His Nuevas Ideas party further won 58 out of the 60 seats in the Legislative Assembly. His record level of control has solidified Bukele's hold on the legislative and judicial arms of the government.
Although Bukele's second term is technically underway, the current law permits only two consecutive terms. There does not seem to be any evident legal process currently for a third consecutive term. However, following the precedent in 2021, many are questioning whether yet another interpretation might permit Bukele to stand again in 2029. That there is no independent judiciary system in place means future rulings on this issue cannot be predicted.
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The 2021 Supreme Court Decision Changed How Term Limits Are Interpreted In Favor Of Consecutive Re-Election
The landscape was transformed dramatically in September of 2021, when the Supreme Court Constitutional Chamber of El Salvador issued a very contentious decision. The court, whose judges had been appointed just months earlier by a legislature controlled by members of Bukele's party, declared that a president who stands for consecutive terms is constitutionally guaranteed. This was accomplished by reinterpreting the constitution based on the policy that popular freedom of choice would be allowed to dominate more conservative restraints.
It actually ended up paving the way for Bukele's return as a candidate in 2024. It was ridiculed internationally by lawyers and commentators who complained that it smelled of subverting democratic restraints and checks on judicial authority. Within the nation itself, however, Bukele was extremely popular, the late-2023 polls discovering over 70% of Salvadorans still his president-supporters.
Global Leaders And Human Rights Organizations Have Expressed Concerns Over Democratic Erosion In El Salvador
Bukele's re-election and the judicial route through which it has been attained have drawn severe responses from global institutions. The U.S. State Department and the Organization of American States (OAS) have raised alarm over democratic backsliding. They refer to power centralization and decline in judicial independence as indicators of possible authoritarianism.
Although there has been some criticism, Bukele is still highly popular at home. Crime rates in El Salvador have decreased dramatically while he has been president, much to the credit of his hardline security policies. Homicides have dropped over 50% from 2019 to 2023 under his tenure, by government estimates. His partisans claim that all of the advancements are worth his prolonged tenure, while critics cite long-term democratic institution expenses.
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Future Presidential Term Limits In El Salvador May Depend On New Legal Interpretations And Political Decisions
Nayib Bukele can legally now stay in power for two five-year consecutive terms. He will end the current term of his presidency in 2029. If he would want a third term, it would indeed be dependent upon the political atmosphere and actions from the courts and legislature closer to the deadline. If another re-interpretation of the constitution were conducted, it would have the possibility once again of changing the laws again either more guaranteeing Bukele's future or garnering opposition from other forces.
El Salvador's term limit statutes are no longer merely a question of constitutional phraseology; today they represent deeper tensions between legal power, popular opinion, and political power.
